Europe’s 2026 power price spike: what it means for businesses in Spain and Portugal

By Fabio-Massimo Querrioux, Founder & CEO

Gas in Europe costs roughly three times what it did in February 2026, and power has followed: from 1 to 14 November, Spain’s day-ahead price averaged about €195/MWh, against €65/MWh across 2025. Sun and wind keep Spain and Portugal cheaper than Germany or Italy, but evenings are dear. Here is why, and what a business can do.

What is happening, and why

The war involving Iran began at the end of February 2026. Since March, liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers have all but stopped using the Strait of Hormuz, the route for about a fifth of the world’s LNG exports in 2025, according to ACER, the EU agency for energy regulators. The EU bought only about 7% of its LNG from Qatar in the winter of 2025/2026, but it now competes with Asia for the cargoes left. And EU gas storage began this winter at its lowest level since 2013, the International Energy Agency reported on 3 November 2026.

On MIBGAS, the Iberian gas market, the day-ahead price averaged about €32/MWh in February 2026 and passed €100/MWh at the turn of October and November. Gas plants set the price of power in many hours, so electricity followed. On 9 November 2026, Italy’s government approved a temporary cap, from January 2027, on the price of gas used to generate electricity, after talks with the European Commission.

From OMIE data for Spain and Portugal and Bundesnetzagentur (SMARD) data for the other markets. Spain’s average from 1 to 14 November 2026 is above that of every full month from April 2022 onwards.

Why Spain and Portugal pay less than Germany or Italy

Sun and wind. Renewables produced 55.5% of Spain’s electricity in 2025, according to Red Eléctrica, and supplied 62% of Portugal’s consumption from January to October 2026, according to REN. The two countries share one day-ahead market, run by OMIE, and from 1 to 14 November 2026 their prices were the same in 93% of quarter-hours.

Solar shapes the day. Over those two weeks, Spain’s price averaged about €109/MWh between 12:00 and 15:00, Spanish time, and about €260/MWh between 18:00 and 22:00, as the sun sets and more gas plants run. Germany has little sun in November, so a calm day stays dear from morning to night: on 9 November 2026, with wind covering about 5% of demand, its daily price averaged about €346/MWh and passed €600/MWh between 17:00 and 18:00.

What it means for your contract

With an indexed contract, your energy price follows the day-ahead market through the day, plus the supplier’s costs and margin, so November’s prices reach your next bill: €195/MWh is €0.195 per kWh for energy alone, before network charges and taxes. Sites that use most of their power around midday pay less than that average.

With a price agreed for the term, today’s prices reach you at renewal, and a price agreed now reflects the futures market. On 13 November 2026, OMIP, the Iberian futures exchange, priced Spanish baseload power at about €122/MWh for 2027 and €70/MWh for 2028: today’s prices for future delivery, not a forecast. In Portugal, the regulator ERSE proposed on 15 October 2026 lower network access tariffs for 2027, 13.5% lower at medium voltage, but notes that futures point to higher wholesale prices in 2027 than its 2026 tariffs assumed.

Start with your own data: a year of hourly consumption, from Datadis in Spain or the E-REDES Balcão Digital in Portugal, shows how much you use at midday and after sunset. If your contract renews in the next few months, I would ask for offers early and compare them on that data rather than on a headline price per kWh.

Make your own power in the middle of the day

Every kWh a plant at your site supplies is one you do not buy, with its energy price and the charges billed per kWh. On an indexed contract, solar replaces the cheaper hours, so value it at the midday price, which still averaged about €109/MWh in Spain from 1 to 14 November 2026. Size the plant to what you use. Buying or leasing works at any size, and buying usually saves the most over the plant’s life; see our guides to commercial solar in Spain and commercial solar in Portugal.

Carry solar into the evening, or pay only for each kWh

A battery charged at midday can cover part of the evening, when prices from 1 to 14 November 2026 were more than twice the midday level. Whether it pays depends on what you use after sunset, as our battery guide explains. In Portugal, from 1 April 2027 the peak periods in network tariffs for sites at special low voltage and above move mainly to the end of the day, according to ERSE.

From 50 kWp, a PPA lets a financing partner pay for, own and maintain a plant at your site, with nothing upfront, and you pay only for the kWh it supplies. The price is set in the contract, starts below what you pay the grid when you sign and rises each year by a formula written into the contract, so it does not move with the day-ahead market.

In a project we have under study in November 2026, an agri-food business in Castilla-La Mancha that pays the grid about €0.15 per kWh would pay about €0.11 per kWh with a PPA. The bigger the plant, the lower the price per kWh tends to be, and power the site does not use can be credited on the bill or sold to the grid, as the contract sets out. Our solar PPA guide explains the contract.

How Aeternus helps

Aeternus Power is an independent energy company based in Madrid, working in Spain and Portugal. We work out what your site can produce and the best way to pay for it: buying the plant, leasing it or, from 50 kWp, a PPA with nothing upfront. We bring in a vetted builder and the financing, and oversee the work. We never own plants: the builder or financing partner pays us a commission, never you, and only when a project goes ahead.

For a first figure, try the free preview on our business page, or contact us with a recent bill: we reply within two working days.

Questions

Why is electricity so expensive in November 2026?

Mainly because of gas. It sets the price of power in many hours, and it costs roughly three times what it did in February 2026, after LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz all but stopped.

Why are prices lower in Spain and Portugal than in Germany?

More sun and wind. Solar keeps midday prices low in Spain and Portugal even in November, while Germany, with little sun at this time of year, stays expensive all day when the wind drops.

Is an indexed contract or an agreed price better?

It depends on when you use power and how much price movement you can absorb. An indexed contract passes on the market, cheaper at midday and dearer in the evening; an agreed price changes only at renewal. Compare both on your own hourly data.

Does the price of a PPA move with the market?

No. It is set in the contract and rises each year by a formula written into it, such as an agreed percentage or inflation. Power the plant does not cover still comes from your supplier.

Is there a minimum size?

For a PPA with Aeternus, 50 kWp. Buying or leasing a plant works at any size.

Sources

• OMIE: day-ahead market prices for Spain and Portugal (daily files from 1 to 14 November 2026, and since 2022 for the monthly comparison): https://www.omie.es/en/market-results/daily/daily-market/daily-hourly-price
• MIBGAS: Iberian gas market daily prices, PVB day-ahead index (February to November 2026): https://www.mibgas.es/en/market-results
• Bundesnetzagentur, SMARD: wholesale prices and generation in Germany and neighbouring markets (2025 and November 2026): https://www.smard.de/en/marktdaten
• International Energy Agency (3 November 2026): low storage buffers in Europe could prolong global gas market tightness well into 2027: https://www.iea.org/news/low-storage-buffers-in-europe-could-prolong-global-gas-market-tightness-well-into-2027
• ACER: key developments in EU gas markets, winter 2025-2026 (23 April 2026): https://www.acer.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Publications/2026-ACER-Gas-Key-Developments-winter.pdf
• Público (28 March 2026): oil and gas prices in the first month of the war in Iran (in Portuguese): https://www.publico.pt/2026/03/28/economia/noticia/petroleo-subiu-55-gas-aumento-70-mes-guerra-irao-2169463
• Il Sole 24 Ore (9 November 2026): Italy’s cabinet approves a decree capping the price of gas for power generation: https://en.ilsole24ore.com/art/decreto-bollette-bis-via-libera-cdm-tetto-prezzo-gas-AJVedJAC
• Argus (19 October 2026): Italy reaches a deal with the European Commission on a gas cap for power output: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2892677-italy-reaches-deal-with-eu-on-gas-cap-for-power-output
• Red Eléctrica (11 March 2026): the Spanish electricity system in 2025, press release: https://www.ree.es/sites/default/files/2026-03/1103_NP_ISE_2025.pdf
• REN (3 November 2026): renewables supplied 62% of electricity consumption in the first ten months of 2026: https://www.ren.pt/pt-pt/media/noticias/renovaveis-abastecem-62-do-consumo-de-energia-eletrica-ao-fim-de-10-meses
• OMIP: Spanish baseload futures, session of 13 November 2026: https://www.omip.pt/en/dados-mercado?date=2026-11-13&product=EL&zone=ES&instrument=FTB
• ERSE (15 October 2026): proposal for electricity tariffs and prices in 2027, press release: https://www.erse.pt/media/xomgtpjd/comunicado_proposta_tse_2027_.pdf
• ERSE (15 October 2026): questions and answers on the 2027 tariff proposal, including wholesale futures: https://www.erse.pt/media/tjni5wea/perguntas_e_respostas_proposta_tse_2027.pdf
• ERSE (31 July 2026): new time-of-use periods, from 1 April 2027 for special low voltage and above: https://www.erse.pt/media/4kply050/comunicado_novos-per%C3%ADodos-hor%C3%A1rios.pdf
• Datadis: consumption data platform of Spain’s electricity distributors: https://datadis.es
• E-REDES: 15-minute load data in the Balcão Digital (2024): https://e-redes.pt/sites/eredes/files/2024-08/E-REDES%20-%20Calculo%20dos%20consumos-injecao%20no%20autoconsumo%20coletivo_vfinal.pdf

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